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Monday 30 May 2011
Friday 25 March 2011
The Maths in Poker
expected mathematics in poker :
Poker plays can also be analyzed in terms of expectation. You may think that a particular play is profitable, but sometimes it may not be the best play because an alternative play is more profitable. Let's say you have a full house in five-card draw. A player ahead of you bets. You know that if you raise, that player will call. So raising appears to be the best play. However, when you raise, the two players behind you will surely fold. On the other hand, if you call the first bettor, you feel fairly confident that the two players behind you will also call. By raising, you gain one unit, but by only calling you gain two. Therefore, calling has the higher positive expectation and is the better play.
Here is a similar but slightly more complicated situation. On the last card in a seven-card stud hand, you make a flush. The player ahead of you, whom you read to have two pair, bets, and there is a player behind you still in the hand, whom you know you have beat. If you raise, the player behind you will fold. Furthermore, the initial bettor will probably also fold if he in fact does have only two pair; but if he made a full house, he will re-raise. In this instance, then, raising not only gives you no positive expectation, but it's actually a play with negative expectation. For if the initial bettor has a full house and re-raise, the play costs you two units if you call his re-raise and one unit if you fold.
Taking this example a step further: If you do not make the flush on the last card and the player ahead of you bets, you might raise against certain opponents! Following the logic of the situation when you did make the flush, the player behind you will fold, and if the initial bettor has only two pair, he too may fold. Whether the play has positive expectation (or less negative expectation than folding) depends upon the odds you are getting for your money - that is, the size of the pot - and your estimate of the chances that the initial bettor does not have a full house and will throw away two pair. Making the latter estimate requires, of course, the ability to read hands and to read players, which I discuss in later pages. At this level, expectation becomes much more complicated than it was when you were just flipping a coin.
Mathematical expectation can also show that one poker play is less unprofitable than another. If, for instance, you think you will average losing 75 cents, including the ante, by playing a hand, you should play on because that is better than folding if the ante is a dollar.
Another important reason to understand expectation is that it gives you a sense of equanimity toward winning or losing a bet: When you make a good bet or a good fold, you will know that you have earned or saved a specific amount which a lesser player would not have earned or saved. It is much harder to make that fold if you are upset because your hand was outdrawn. However, the money you save by folding instead of calling ads to your winnings for the night or for the month. I actually derive pleasure from making a good fold even though I have lost the pot.
Just remember that if the hands were reversed, your opponent would call you, and as we shall see when we discuss the Fundamental Theorem of Poker in the next page, this is one of your edges. You should be happy when it occurs. You should even derive satisfaction from a losing session when you know that other players would have lost much more with your cards.
Poker plays can also be analyzed in terms of expectation. You may think that a particular play is profitable, but sometimes it may not be the best play because an alternative play is more profitable. Let's say you have a full house in five-card draw. A player ahead of you bets. You know that if you raise, that player will call. So raising appears to be the best play. However, when you raise, the two players behind you will surely fold. On the other hand, if you call the first bettor, you feel fairly confident that the two players behind you will also call. By raising, you gain one unit, but by only calling you gain two. Therefore, calling has the higher positive expectation and is the better play.
Here is a similar but slightly more complicated situation. On the last card in a seven-card stud hand, you make a flush. The player ahead of you, whom you read to have two pair, bets, and there is a player behind you still in the hand, whom you know you have beat. If you raise, the player behind you will fold. Furthermore, the initial bettor will probably also fold if he in fact does have only two pair; but if he made a full house, he will re-raise. In this instance, then, raising not only gives you no positive expectation, but it's actually a play with negative expectation. For if the initial bettor has a full house and re-raise, the play costs you two units if you call his re-raise and one unit if you fold.
Taking this example a step further: If you do not make the flush on the last card and the player ahead of you bets, you might raise against certain opponents! Following the logic of the situation when you did make the flush, the player behind you will fold, and if the initial bettor has only two pair, he too may fold. Whether the play has positive expectation (or less negative expectation than folding) depends upon the odds you are getting for your money - that is, the size of the pot - and your estimate of the chances that the initial bettor does not have a full house and will throw away two pair. Making the latter estimate requires, of course, the ability to read hands and to read players, which I discuss in later pages. At this level, expectation becomes much more complicated than it was when you were just flipping a coin.
Mathematical expectation can also show that one poker play is less unprofitable than another. If, for instance, you think you will average losing 75 cents, including the ante, by playing a hand, you should play on because that is better than folding if the ante is a dollar.
Another important reason to understand expectation is that it gives you a sense of equanimity toward winning or losing a bet: When you make a good bet or a good fold, you will know that you have earned or saved a specific amount which a lesser player would not have earned or saved. It is much harder to make that fold if you are upset because your hand was outdrawn. However, the money you save by folding instead of calling ads to your winnings for the night or for the month. I actually derive pleasure from making a good fold even though I have lost the pot.
Just remember that if the hands were reversed, your opponent would call you, and as we shall see when we discuss the Fundamental Theorem of Poker in the next page, this is one of your edges. You should be happy when it occurs. You should even derive satisfaction from a losing session when you know that other players would have lost much more with your cards.
Wednesday 23 March 2011
Poker Lingo & abbreviations
Here's a list of common terms and abbreviations used in the NL forums.
AKQJT - Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten
UTG - Under the Gun, first player to act preflop
UTG+1 - Under the Gun plus one, second player to act preflop
EP - early position
MP - middle position
LP - late position
OTB - On The Button
CO - Cut off, player one seat to the right of button
HJ - Hijack, player two seats to the right of button
SB - small blind
BB - big blind
c/c - check/call
c/f - check/fold
c/r - check/raise
b/f - bet and fold to a raise
3-bet - a bet, a raise, and then another raise. The third action is a 3-bet.
b3b - Hero's plan is to bet, and then 3-bet if raised.
reraise - raising the PFR
VB - value bet
CB - continuation bet
PSB - pot-sized bet
PSR - pot-sized raise
PFR - preflop raise or preflop raiser
overbet - a bet amount larger than the current pot
check behind - to check when it's been checked to you, usually after betting action on previous street
donkbet - either to lead into the PFR on the flop, or a tiny bet made in relation to the pot
thin value bet - usually a river bet made when it's unclear if you are ahead or not
Monotone - a flop of all the same suit
Rainbow - a flop of all different suits
Overpair - having a pair in your hand higher than the biggest card on the board
gutshot - an inside straight draw
TPTK - top pair top kicker
TPWK - top pair weak kicker
TPGK - top pair good kicker
TP2K - top pair 2nd best kicker--You have KQ, flop K72, you have top pair, 2nd best kicker (the Q)
TPCK - top pair crap kicker
TPBK - top pair bad kicker
9To - Nine Ten offsuit
KJs - King Jack suited
Ax - An Ace with any second card
Kxx - refers to a King high flop
Q73r - r = rainbow flop
OESD - open ended straight draw
OESFD - open ended straight flush draw
pp - pocket pair
sc - suited connector
EV - Expected Value
OOP - out of position
FE - fold equity
AI - all-in
ATC - any two cards
UI - unimproved
TAG - tight aggressive
LAG - loose aggressive
LAP - loose passive
sLAG - slightly loose aggressive
MHIG - my hand is good
MHING - my hand is no good
WA/WB - way ahead, way behind
IMO - In my opinion
IMHO - In my humble opinion
JMO - Just my opinion
FYP - fixed your post
OP - original post or poster
tl;dr - too long; didn't read
QFT - quoted for truth
x-post - post made in more than one forum at one time
OT - off topic
lc - low content
nc - no content
goot - good
moran - moron
nh - nice hand
meh - the sound you make when you shrug your shoulders signaling indifference; not great, not terrible.
pwned - owned or pawned. Usually means you got outplayed.
BB/100 - # of bb's won per 100 hands played
PTBB/100 - poker tracker big blinds won per 100 hands played. A PTBB is 2xBB.
~$7 - around $7 or about $7
FPS - fancy play syndrome
aggro - aggressive
SSNL - small stakes no limit
MSNL - mid stakes no limit
HSNL - high stakes no limit
NLHE - no limit hold 'em
LHE - limit hold 'em
BBV - the Beats, Brags, and Variance forum
PT - Pokertracker
VPIP - voluntarily put money in the pot
AF - aggression factor
Villian is 24/10/3(98)- Pokertracker stats indicating VPIP/PFR%/AF (with preflop aggression taken out) over 98 hands
GT+ - Gametime Plus
PA - PokerAce
PAHUD - PokerAce Heads Up Display
PP - Party Poker
PS, Stars - PokerStars
FT - Full Tilt
UB - Ultimate Bet
PL - pot limit
PF - pre-flop
HH - hand history
HU - heads up
FR - full ring
FT - full table
6m - 6-max
NL100 - number indicates the buy-in; this is No Limit, with $1 BB's
Stop-n-Go - You bet, get raised, you call closing the action on that street, then lead out on the next street.
Float - You call a bet with a marginal hand or draw, usually on the flop while in position, with the intent of stealing the pot on a later street.
Semi-bluff - betting/raising when you have a draw.
Stealing blinds - openraising in late position with less than premium hands.
blocking bet - often a river bet made OOP when an obvious draw hits on the end, where you bet and fold to a raise
effective stack - the smallest stack amongst the players remaining in the hand.
trips - flop is JJ8, you hold KJ, you have trips
set - flop is K42, you hold 44, you have a set
pot control - attempting to keep the pot small with a marginal holding
minraise - raising the lowest amount possible
AKQJT - Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten
UTG - Under the Gun, first player to act preflop
UTG+1 - Under the Gun plus one, second player to act preflop
EP - early position
MP - middle position
LP - late position
OTB - On The Button
CO - Cut off, player one seat to the right of button
HJ - Hijack, player two seats to the right of button
SB - small blind
BB - big blind
c/c - check/call
c/f - check/fold
c/r - check/raise
b/f - bet and fold to a raise
3-bet - a bet, a raise, and then another raise. The third action is a 3-bet.
b3b - Hero's plan is to bet, and then 3-bet if raised.
reraise - raising the PFR
VB - value bet
CB - continuation bet
PSB - pot-sized bet
PSR - pot-sized raise
PFR - preflop raise or preflop raiser
overbet - a bet amount larger than the current pot
check behind - to check when it's been checked to you, usually after betting action on previous street
donkbet - either to lead into the PFR on the flop, or a tiny bet made in relation to the pot
thin value bet - usually a river bet made when it's unclear if you are ahead or not
Monotone - a flop of all the same suit
Rainbow - a flop of all different suits
Overpair - having a pair in your hand higher than the biggest card on the board
gutshot - an inside straight draw
TPTK - top pair top kicker
TPWK - top pair weak kicker
TPGK - top pair good kicker
TP2K - top pair 2nd best kicker--You have KQ, flop K72, you have top pair, 2nd best kicker (the Q)
TPCK - top pair crap kicker
TPBK - top pair bad kicker
9To - Nine Ten offsuit
KJs - King Jack suited
Ax - An Ace with any second card
Kxx - refers to a King high flop
Q73r - r = rainbow flop
OESD - open ended straight draw
OESFD - open ended straight flush draw
pp - pocket pair
sc - suited connector
EV - Expected Value
OOP - out of position
FE - fold equity
AI - all-in
ATC - any two cards
UI - unimproved
TAG - tight aggressive
LAG - loose aggressive
LAP - loose passive
sLAG - slightly loose aggressive
MHIG - my hand is good
MHING - my hand is no good
WA/WB - way ahead, way behind
IMO - In my opinion
IMHO - In my humble opinion
JMO - Just my opinion
FYP - fixed your post
OP - original post or poster
tl;dr - too long; didn't read
QFT - quoted for truth
x-post - post made in more than one forum at one time
OT - off topic
lc - low content
nc - no content
goot - good
moran - moron
nh - nice hand
meh - the sound you make when you shrug your shoulders signaling indifference; not great, not terrible.
pwned - owned or pawned. Usually means you got outplayed.
BB/100 - # of bb's won per 100 hands played
PTBB/100 - poker tracker big blinds won per 100 hands played. A PTBB is 2xBB.
~$7 - around $7 or about $7
FPS - fancy play syndrome
aggro - aggressive
SSNL - small stakes no limit
MSNL - mid stakes no limit
HSNL - high stakes no limit
NLHE - no limit hold 'em
LHE - limit hold 'em
BBV - the Beats, Brags, and Variance forum
PT - Pokertracker
VPIP - voluntarily put money in the pot
AF - aggression factor
Villian is 24/10/3(98)- Pokertracker stats indicating VPIP/PFR%/AF (with preflop aggression taken out) over 98 hands
GT+ - Gametime Plus
PA - PokerAce
PAHUD - PokerAce Heads Up Display
PP - Party Poker
PS, Stars - PokerStars
FT - Full Tilt
UB - Ultimate Bet
PL - pot limit
PF - pre-flop
HH - hand history
HU - heads up
FR - full ring
FT - full table
6m - 6-max
NL100 - number indicates the buy-in; this is No Limit, with $1 BB's
Stop-n-Go - You bet, get raised, you call closing the action on that street, then lead out on the next street.
Float - You call a bet with a marginal hand or draw, usually on the flop while in position, with the intent of stealing the pot on a later street.
Semi-bluff - betting/raising when you have a draw.
Stealing blinds - openraising in late position with less than premium hands.
blocking bet - often a river bet made OOP when an obvious draw hits on the end, where you bet and fold to a raise
effective stack - the smallest stack amongst the players remaining in the hand.
trips - flop is JJ8, you hold KJ, you have trips
set - flop is K42, you hold 44, you have a set
pot control - attempting to keep the pot small with a marginal holding
minraise - raising the lowest amount possible
Tuesday 22 March 2011
Online gambling Industry To Grow Rapidly By 2014
Recession has left many looking at the online gambling industry as a source of alternative income. In a recent report, iGaming Business demonstrated that by the end of 2010 the online casino market will be worth $4.7 billion dollars globally. This is based on gross gaming yield figures. The report also indicated that that by the end of 201 the industry will be worth $5.8 billion dollars, and continue to increase to a market valuation of $7.1 billion dollars gross gaming yield by the end of 2014. What this means is that the online casino gambling industry is set for rapid growth, increasing nearly 79% when compared to 2009 gross gambling yields.
iGaming Business is the key provider of reports of this nature for the online gambling industry. They are seen as the standard of intelligence for growth reports in the online casino industry. Meanwhile, the Global Business of Online Casinos tracks trends and strategies of successful online gambling casino operators providing a step by step look at the history of the industry using statistics on start-ups and established companies who expand.
Insiders in the industry state that on average, it takes $1.5 million dollars in start up costs to get an online casino up and running. However, few employees are needed for online casinos, whereas many more dollars go into employee costs for traditional brick and mortar gambling sites. In fact, average start up for a traditional gambling establishment can exceed $300 million dollars due to the need for funding added operational costs. This means that many online markets are being diversified because of the lower start-up and operational costs which is contributing to the extensive growth in the industry.
Two such enterprises are Virgin Group and Sky in the UK. They entered the online gambling scene by launching their own branded online casinos. This is one way to market and monetize existing online content to create alternative revenue streams. Industry reports support the concept that other companies will be employing similar strategies contributing to similar online revenue models. Another trend for monetizing online gambling websites is to use social networking technology and wireless communications to boost gambling revenues. Everyone is looking for next great app for their phone, or social networking pleasure and many operators are using this as the impetus for their online gambling research and development seeing it as a huge growth opportunity that will continue into 2014.
Monday 21 March 2011
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Friday 18 March 2011
The Price Of Poker
The house rake is obviously only a part of poker's price for fun. The rest depends on who is playing. Are you better than everyone else at the table? If the answer is yes, then the price for fun will usually be zero or less. Poker will pay you money. On the other hand, if you're the worst player at the table, it is realistic to expect that nearly every dollar you put into the pot will disappear. It's like a Sunday golfer playing in a pro tournament. He might be good with his weekend buddies, but he'll be creamed by the people who play for a living.
You may not think professionals play in lows takes casino games, but they do. It's usually young people on their way up or tired champions on their way down. You'll find semi-professionals who like to fleece tourists, and eager beginners building a bankroll. Pro or amateur, the whole mindset is different here than anywhere else in the casino. These people are serious. It may be fun, but it's a different kind of fun from spinning the reels on a slot or throwing dice.
You can have fun, too: just remember that these people want to take your money. The only way to stop them is to play better or walk away. If you can't play better, and you're not in the mood to pay for an education in poker at that moment, then you should walk. That's always an option. You can fold anytime for any reason. They can't stop you. Just take your chips and go.
But keep practicing and learning. Eventually it will be you who is taking the money, stealing pots, and otherwise tweaking noses with style and aplomb. You'll be the one who can say with confidence that poker is the ultimate positive expectation games.
You may not think professionals play in lows takes casino games, but they do. It's usually young people on their way up or tired champions on their way down. You'll find semi-professionals who like to fleece tourists, and eager beginners building a bankroll. Pro or amateur, the whole mindset is different here than anywhere else in the casino. These people are serious. It may be fun, but it's a different kind of fun from spinning the reels on a slot or throwing dice.
You can have fun, too: just remember that these people want to take your money. The only way to stop them is to play better or walk away. If you can't play better, and you're not in the mood to pay for an education in poker at that moment, then you should walk. That's always an option. You can fold anytime for any reason. They can't stop you. Just take your chips and go.
But keep practicing and learning. Eventually it will be you who is taking the money, stealing pots, and otherwise tweaking noses with style and aplomb. You'll be the one who can say with confidence that poker is the ultimate positive expectation games.
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